Albania’s Capacity to “Defend Its Territories” — A Scientific Study (for publication)
Flamur Buçpapaj
Abstract
This study critically examines whether a weak Albania — characterized by high levels of corruption and limited military and industrial capacity — can ensure the protection of its interests and territories as invoked in political discourse (e.g., ethnic communities/Albanian-majority areas in Kosovo, North Macedonia, etc.).
The analysis combines an assessment of existing capabilities, strategic risks, conflict scenarios, and policy alternatives — emphasizing alliance-based solutions, asymmetric deterrence, and the building of civil and institutional resilience.
Based on recent data and strategic literature, the main conclusion is that without strong alliances and deep institutional reforms, a solely nationalist or military policy is unsustainable. The most effective alternative combines diplomacy, integration into NATO/EU, asymmetric capabilities (drones, medium/short-range air defense, intelligence speculation), and the development of a medium-term industrial and munitions base.
CHAPTER I
Geopolitical Context and the Weakening of the Albanian State
. Introduction
At the beginning of the 21st century, Albania faces a complex political, economic, and geostrategic reality. Despite NATO membership and aspirations for full EU integration, the weakness of state institutions, lack of productive capacity, systemic corruption, and the influence of criminal structures over politics and the economy pose serious threats to national security and the state’s ability to defend its territory and sovereignty.
Instead of consolidating its foundations on a professional administration, a sustainable economy, and a modern army, the Albanian state has fallen into the trap of capture by local oligarchies and narrow interests—stemming primarily from rural mafia structures—a socio-economic and political phenomenon that destroys meritocracy, halts industrial development, and undermines state sovereignty.
. The Weakening of the State Structure
The weakening of the Albanian state is not only institutional but also conceptual. The absence of a national strategy for economic, industrial, and military development has left the country dependent on imports for every basic need: food, energy, and defense. This dependency represents a direct threat to national security in the event of international crises or regional conflicts.
The destruction of former military industries—such as the Poliçan, Gramsh, Mjekës, and Laç plants—which produced ammunition, explosives, superphosphates, light weapons, and auxiliary defense systems—has led to the disappearance of strategic self-defense capacities. A state that produces neither weapons nor ammunition, and lacks an operational naval and air fleet, is defenseless in the truest sense of the word.
The Impact of Mafia and Corruption on the Albanian State
The entrenchment of the mafia at various levels of public administration has created an informal system of power, where national interests are replaced by narrow local and personal ones. This phenomenon directly affects:
The dysfunction of the rule of law, where justice serves as an instrument of pressure rather than protection.
The capture of public resources through fictitious tenders and contracts with oligarchs controlling strategic sectors.
The destruction of meritocracy, turning the administration into a clientelist structure.
The abandonment of national security policies as priorities shift from strategic interests to quick economic gain.
The Consequences of a Weak Economy on National Defense
A weak economy distorted by corruption cannot finance a sustainable defense system. Currently, Albania’s defense budget remains below NATO’s required minimum (2% of GDP), with most of it spent on salaries and maintenance, not modernization.
With no domestic production, every weapon, spare part, or military vehicle must be imported, leaving Albania dependent on foreign suppliers—even for emergencies. This dependency makes a rapid response impossible in the face of a real threat to its borders.
Regional Context: Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Montenegro
Albania’s geographic position directly links its security to that of Albanians in Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Montenegro. Although the concept of “national unity” is more cultural and historical than political, in practice every crisis in these territories directly affects Albania’s security.
If Albania lacks military, air, and missile capabilities, it cannot even guarantee moral and political support for the defense of Albanians outside its borders.
At a time when neighboring states are modernizing their air fleets (Serbia with Chinese drones, Russian aircraft, and S-300 systems; Greece with French Rafales and F-35s), Albania remains in the phase of “patriotic rhetoric” without any real defensive foundation.
In its current state, the Albanian state is more exposed than ever to external and internal threats. The combination of corruption, lack of industry, structural poverty, and the absence of a security strategy constitutes a full crisis of sovereignty.
Without restoring productive capacity, reforming the army on a technological basis, and building an economy that ensures energy and industrial independence, Albania cannot defend its borders, its regional population, or play any stabilizing role in the Balkans.
CHAPTER II
The Albanian Army in Crisis: Lack of Air, Missile, and Domestic Weapons Systems
The Army as a Reflection of the State
One of the clearest indicators of a state’s strength is the condition of its army. A state without an organized, modern, and well-equipped force to defend its territory does not possess real sovereignty.
In this sense, the Albanian army after the 1990s has become the darkest mirror of the country’s endless political and economic transition: weak, disorganized, underfunded, and without a clear strategic vision.
This situation is not accidental but the result of a long process of dismantling national defense capacities, starting with the destruction of military industry and ending in complete dependence on imports and foreign aid.
The Transformation of the Armed Forces after 1997
The political and social crises of 1991–1997 led to the physical and institutional destruction of defense structures. In 1997, army depots were looted, military factories abandoned, and thousands of weapons distributed among civilians—creating a dangerous precedent that destroyed public trust in the state army.
Subsequent reforms, supported by NATO and international partners, focused on professionalization and personnel reduction, but not on building a national production or logistics system. What appeared to be modernization in form turned the army into a symbolic structure, dependent on donations, with minimal operational capability in case of war or real territorial threat.
Lack of Air and Missile Systems
One of the army’s deepest weaknesses is the lack of air and missile defense systems. During the Cold War, Albania possessed over 220 fighter aircraft (MiG-15, MiG-17, MiG-19, MiG-21) and a dispersed air defense network sheltered in fortified mountain tunnels.
Today, these structures are entirely defunct: the aircraft are scrapped or displayed as museums, and major air bases such as Kuçova or Gjader are used only for training or non-combat purposes.
In practice, Albania has no active combat aircraft, no operational surface-to-air missiles, and no advanced radar systems for airspace control.
Instead of a national air defense structure, the country relies entirely on NATO’s air umbrella—meaning total dependence on partners such as Italy and Greece. This dependency strips Albania of any sovereign ability to respond to sudden regional threats or to defend its own strategic assets.
(CHAPTER III
Geopolitical Risks and Conflict Scenarios in the Balkans
. The Balkan Strategic Environment
The Balkans remain one of Europe’s most volatile and strategically sensitive regions. The legacy of unfinished ethnic and territorial disputes, combined with the geopolitical competition of major powers — the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, and Turkey — creates a multidimensional arena of influence and instability.
For Albania, located at the crossroads of the Adriatic and the interior Balkan Peninsula, the stability of this environment directly determines its own security. Every crisis in Kosovo, North Macedonia, or Montenegro has immediate implications for Albania’s political, economic, and military equilibrium.
. The Kosovo Question
Kosovo is both the heart of Albanian national sentiment and the central axis of Albania’s geopolitical sensitivity. The fragile peace in northern Kosovo, the constant Serbian provocations supported by Moscow, and the potential escalation of hybrid warfare make Kosovo’s stability a matter of existential importance for Albania.
However, Albania currently lacks the military infrastructure, missile systems, or logistics to play any real defensive or deterrent role if tensions escalate. Its political support is significant, but in military terms, its contribution is symbolic.
Without an operational defense industry, Albania cannot even provide material assistance — ammunition, drones, or armored vehicles — to support Kosovo in an emergency. This exposes the contradiction between political rhetoric and real defensive capacity.
. North Macedonia and the Albanian Factor
In North Macedonia, Albanians constitute over 25% of the population and remain a decisive factor for the country’s stability. However, periodic nationalist pressures from both Macedonian and external actors could lead to scenarios of tension, particularly if the internal equilibrium between ethnic communities deteriorates.
For Albania, any destabilization in North Macedonia automatically threatens its own borders in Dibra and Pogradec and increases refugee pressure and cross-border crime. Yet, as with Kosovo, Albania’s inability to act defensively or preventively — due to its lack of military, intelligence, and logistical capacity — limits its strategic role to one of observation.
Montenegro and the Northern Border
In Montenegro, Albanians are a small but politically active community. The shifting balance between pro-Western and pro-Serbian factions in Podgorica can directly affect Albania’s northern security. A potential reorientation of Montenegro toward Russian or Serbian influence would isolate Albania geographically and strategically from the Adriatic axis, creating a serious national security dilemma.
. Hybrid and Non-Conventional Threats
Modern threats to Albania’s security are no longer limited to territorial aggression. The real risks today include:
Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure (e.g., the 2022 Iranian cyberattack).
Disinformation campaigns targeting public opinion, often coordinated by foreign actors to weaken trust in institutions.
Economic infiltration through criminal organizations controlling strategic sectors such as energy, construction, and telecommunications.
Religious radicalization and the manipulation of social divisions to create internal unrest.
These hybrid threats require not only military response but also technological defense, intelligence coordination, and cyber resilience — all of which Albania currently lacks in adequate form.
. Scenarios of Regional Conflict
Based on current dynamics, three main scenarios can be anticipated for the Western Balkans:
Controlled Stability – The continuation of current balances under NATO and EU supervision, with sporadic incidents but no major war.
Localized Conflict – An escalation in northern Kosovo or a crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina spreading instability to neighboring countries.
Regional Polarization – The division of the Balkans into two blocs: a Western-aligned group (Albania, Kosovo, Croatia, North Macedonia) and a Slavic-Orthodox axis supported by Russia (Serbia, Republika Srpska, Montenegro).
In each case, Albania’s role remains reactive and dependent, rather than proactive or deterrent — primarily due to its lack of strategic depth, industrial base, and technological defense infrastructure.
CHAPTER IV
Institutional Weakness and Corruption in National Security
. The State as the Primary Security Actor
In any modern state, national security depends not only on the army or external alliances but fundamentally on the integrity and functionality of its institutions. When corruption and clientelism dominate public life, security structures themselves become compromised.
In Albania, corruption has infiltrated every level of governance — from the judiciary and procurement processes to the recruitment of military and police personnel. This internal corrosion weakens the state more than any external enemy.
. The Capture of Institutions
The “capture” of the Albanian state by networks of political and economic interests has created an informal power structure operating above the law. Defense and security policies are often used to justify clientelist contracts, exaggerated spending, and fictitious tenders for the import of outdated or overpriced military equipment.
Such practices lead to three devastating effects:
Misallocation of resources toward corruption instead of capability.
Erosion of trust between citizens and the army.
Strategic paralysis, as institutions become extensions of private interests.
. Weak Civilian Oversight and Intelligence Gaps
Effective national security requires democratic oversight, strategic intelligence, and institutional transparency. Albania’s security services, however, remain politically influenced and fragmented. The lack of coordination between military intelligence, state police, and civil intelligence services allows foreign and criminal elements to penetrate strategic sectors unnoticed.
Furthermore, the absence of long-term professional training and technological infrastructure prevents the creation of a credible intelligence doctrine — leaving Albania blind in many aspects of modern security.
. Economic Corruption as a Security Threat
Economic corruption has become the central source of Albania’s vulnerability. The intertwining of business, politics, and crime undermines both national defense and economic independence. Key sectors such as energy, construction, and telecommunications are dominated by oligarchic groups with foreign ties, who use state institutions to serve their interests.
This structure turns the Albanian economy into an open gateway for external influence and criminal financing, jeopardizing not only economic sovereignty but also political stability.
. Social Disillusionment and the Decline of Patriotism
One of the most dangerous long-term consequences of institutional decay is the moral erosion of society. When citizens perceive the state as corrupt and unjust, national values — including the will to defend the homeland — begin to erode.
A society that loses faith in justice and equality cannot build a resilient defense system. The concept of “national defense” must therefore begin not with weapons or soldiers, but with civic integrity, education, and collective purpose.
. Toward Institutional Renewal
Rebuilding Albania’s national security requires a radical transformation of its institutions through:
Independent justice and transparent governance.
Merit-based recruitment and depoliticized military structures.
Strict parliamentary oversight over defense expenditures.
Anti-corruption mechanisms integrated into every security institution.
Only when institutions serve the national interest — not private or criminal networks — can Albania create a truly sovereign and modern state capable of protecting its territory and identity. CHAPTER V
Strategic Perspectives for National Defense and Sovereignty
. The Need for a New National Security Doctrine
Albania’s defense policy cannot continue to rely solely on external guarantees or symbolic military structures. A new National Security Doctrine must reflect three essential principles:
Strategic autonomy through capacity-building.
Integration of civil, technological, and industrial systems.
Defense as a comprehensive societal mission, not a bureaucratic sector.
This doctrine should redefine Albania’s national interests within a rapidly changing global context, balancing alliance-based commitments with national capabilities.
. Modernization of the Armed Forces
Military modernization must shift from image-based reforms to capability-based transformation. Key priorities include:
Rebuilding the Air and Missile Defense System.
Albania must invest in a network of short and medium-range missile systems, early-warning radars, and locally produced drones to ensure minimum deterrence.
Re-establishing the Defense Industry.
Reopening and modernizing former military production plants (Poliçan, Gramsh, Mjekës, Laç) would restore critical autonomy for ammunition, explosives, and defensive equipment.
Developing Cyber and Intelligence Capabilities.
The defense sector must incorporate artificial intelligence, cyber defense units, and technological monitoring of hybrid threats.
Naval and Coastal Security.
Given Albania’s extensive Adriatic coastline, strengthening the naval fleet with modern patrol boats, coastal radars, and anti-ship systems is indispensable.
Without these reforms, Albania’s army will remain a dependent and symbolic structure incapable of defending national interests.
. Economic Independence and Strategic Industry
A sustainable defense system cannot exist without an independent economy. Albania must identify and develop strategic industrial sectors that directly contribute to national security, including:
Energy production and storage infrastructure.
Domestic arms and ammunition manufacturing.
Electronic and drone technology industries.
Agricultural and food security systems for wartime autonomy.
Strategic industrial policies should prioritize local production and regional cooperation with Kosovo and North Macedonia to form a Balkan Security Industrial Network, capable of producing basic defense goods and ensuring resilience during crises.
. Education, Science, and Civil-Military Integration
The formation of a defense-oriented civic culture is as crucial as weapons or alliances. Universities and research institutions must play a direct role in developing defense technologies, cybersecurity systems, and strategic studies.
Programs for civil-military education should promote patriotism, scientific innovation, and crisis management skills among youth. National defense must become a shared mission — not confined to the army but embedded in every societal structure.
. Diplomacy, Alliances, and Strategic Balance
While building internal strength, Albania must continue its active diplomacy within NATO, the EU, and regional frameworks. The objectives should include:
Maintaining NATO’s defensive umbrella while developing complementary national capacities.
Deepening strategic cooperation with the United States, the United Kingdom, and Türkiye.
Promoting regional stability through trilateral cooperation with Kosovo and North Macedonia.
Preventing the influence of destabilizing external powers (Russia, China, Iran) through coordinated intelligence and economic policies.
Strategic diplomacy must be based on mutual capacity, not dependence. Albania’s credibility in the eyes of its allies will depend on its ability to contribute to regional security, not merely benefit from it.
. Building a Culture of Strategic Patriotism
Finally, Albania’s long-term survival as a sovereign state depends on reviving strategic patriotism — the belief that love for the homeland is expressed through responsibility, integrity, and competence.
Strategic patriotism requires:
Political ethics and national consensus on security priorities.
Education that promotes knowledge and self-reliance.
A collective rejection of corruption and cynicism as national norms.
Without a moral renaissance, any technical reform will remain superficial. A modern army cannot emerge from a corrupt state; nor can a secure state exist without the moral trust of its citizens.
FINAL CONCLUSIONS
The study demonstrates that Albania’s national security is a reflection of its institutional, economic, and moral condition.
The following conclusions summarize the path toward genuine sovereignty and defense capacity:
Security cannot be imported.
Alliances are vital, but no country can be safe without internal strength. Albania must rebuild its defense industry and technological base.
Institutional integrity equals national defense.
Corruption and institutional capture are internal enemies that weaken the state more than external threats.
Modern warfare requires modern thinking.
Drones, cyber systems, and missile networks are now the backbone of defense. Albania must develop and produce these technologies domestically.
Economic and defense strategies must converge.
National industry, energy autonomy, and food security are part of national defense, not separate from it.
Education and civic morality are the foundation of resilience.
A society aware of its collective mission can overcome material limitations. The battle for Albania’s security begins in its schools, universities, and institutions.
Strategic cooperation with allies must be reciprocal.
Albania should aim to be a reliable security partner, not a passive recipient of protection.
The future of Albanian defense lies in regional coordination.
A cooperative security structure between Albania, Kosovo, and North Macedonia would ensure a shared deterrent and industrial capability in the Western Balkans.
General Conclusion
Albania stands today at a crossroads between dependency and sovereignty. To defend its borders, its citizens, and its dignity, the state must rebuild not only its military system but also its industrial, institutional, and moral foundations.
Only through a synthesis of reform, innovation, and integrity can Albania transform from a fragile post-communist republic into a secure and respected European state — capable of defending itself, contributing to regional peace, and ensuring the survival of the Albanian nation in a turbulent century.
